Daily Forecast

SHORT TERM

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
ELONGATED WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS KEEPS SUNNY AND DRY
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  THE EXCEPTION IS OVER
THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS WHERE SOME LOW TOP AFTERNOON CLOUDS HAVE
APPEARED.  THE RUC AND THE WRF MODEL SHOW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
SWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MOUNTAIN
TOP CONVECTION NOT IMPRESSIVE AT 20Z...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
QUITE WARM AND THERE IS PLENTY OF DAYLIGHT LEFT FOR ONE OR TWO PULSE
TYPE THUNDERSTORM CELLS TO POP.  WILL KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE FOR THE SAN JUANS UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IMPROVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY.  A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY PROPAGATE OVER LA PLATA AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
WARM DRY HIGH CORE CENTERED OVER SRN NEVADA.

RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AND A TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST.  SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  MOISTURE SLOWLY SPREADS NORTHWARD BUT
GENERALLY STAYS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.  CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS OVER ALL SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS.  NORTHERN HALF STAYS MOSTLY DRY...BUT ANY CONVECTIVE
STORMS OVER THE UTAH SPINE MAY PROPAGATE EAST AND AFFECT THE ERN
UINTA MOUNTAINS AND TAVAPUTS.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY
FOR BOTH DAYS.